BREAKING NEWS: Trump Assassination Attempt Makes USD Bearish! 50bps cut from the FOMC this week?

Chỉ số usd

Breaking news: just hours ago, there was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump while he was out golfing. The reports suggest shots were heard, followed by a quick response from FBI, Secret Service personnel. Although details remain limited, someone has been arrested and is in custody. It's concerning to see a second such attempt in less than three months—what’s happening in the world right now?
This situation has created some chaos in the financial markets. The US dollar is weakening, and US bonds are fluctuating in response. As of this Monday morning, we’re seeing the dollar struggle, while the Euro gains strength. US bond yields are also slipping.
Another significant development is the sudden shift in market expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. Last Friday, the consensus was for a 25 basis point rate cut, but now, 60% of the market is expecting a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. This change follows the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut 25 basis points, with a more hawkish tone from Christine Lagarde. The ECB has made it clear they are not locked into a set path for rate cuts.
Personally, I’m sticking with my belief that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points, which I think could strengthen the US dollar as the market adjusts. If the Fed surprises with a 50 basis point cut, we’ll likely see the dollar weaken further in the coming weeks.
It’s going to be crucial to pay attention to what Jerome Powell says about inflation data, including the core CPI, NFP, and other key indicators. The Fed has a lot on its plate, and how they address these issues will be critical for market movements.
As always, stay tuned. Don’t forget to join us tomorrow for our FOMC webinar from 5 to 6 p.m., where we’ll discuss trading strategies for this key event. If you haven’t joined our Telegram group, check out the link in the video description. Stay informed, and I’ll see you next time.
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